Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 43.794715 51.781888 60.592971 71.003630 82.936095 96.152406 111.864577
2024-10-06 32.752272 43.492721 56.532643 73.394172 94.469335 119.779533 152.295709
2024-10-13 24.872032 36.240552 51.125078 71.754323 99.272221 134.344136 181.989513
2024-10-20 22.319625 34.985581 52.570982 78.268660 114.261034 162.189817 229.999424
2024-10-27 17.382968 29.353655 46.986808 74.144245 114.038397 169.456330 250.953320
2024-11-03 15.362599 27.608661 46.552894 77.007245 123.494027 190.276357 291.519640
2024-11-10 13.984634 26.593193 46.976407 81.015392 134.753642 214.240824 337.945995
2024-11-17 12.692870 25.474648 47.017602 84.298207 145.019181 237.274900 384.322079
2024-11-24 11.105176 23.554460 45.444623 84.706469 150.669552 253.573749 421.473536
2024-12-01 9.346933 21.007879 42.434400 82.304533 151.437611 262.200451 447.203566
2024-12-08 8.251399 19.545153 41.133566 82.639341 156.635355 277.979735 484.812645
2024-12-15 7.415133 18.460455 40.373337 83.804408 163.243275 296.319900 527.383198
2024-12-22 5.903107 15.789511 36.472081 79.263660 160.387709 300.362191 549.667470
2024-12-29 5.269483 14.971285 36.183560 81.647566 170.385264 327.185790 612.205876
2025-01-05 4.379991 13.335465 33.921327 79.823563 172.360282 340.216043 652.203894
2025-01-12 4.284916 13.664750 35.954373 86.963949 191.983626 385.737115 751.052279
2025-01-19 3.423328 11.760679 32.647704 82.442162 188.380269 389.022621 775.757306
2025-01-26 3.143906 11.398589 32.875694 85.581087 200.324366 421.650464 854.814605
2025-02-02 2.957344 11.264348 33.632446 89.973242 215.180375 460.641282 947.568694
2025-02-09 2.746524 11.004160 34.029209 93.568656 228.638679 497.750938 1038.792820
2025-02-16 2.422134 10.292617 33.138898 94.015676 235.383690 522.224512 1107.641723
2025-02-23 2.026453 9.220187 31.089440 91.385339 235.141895 532.846776 1150.703166
2025-03-02 1.789019 8.636130 30.291904 91.752038 241.567654 557.161948 1221.340861